Home of the future

ORLANDO, Fla. – Feb. 15, 2007 – Given the rapid evolution of design, configuration and products in new homes, even a professional futurist might be hard-pressed to determine what the next five decades hold for housing. But a new study by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) provides a telling look at the homes buyers can expect to purchase in the nearer future – 2015.NAHB’s Economics Group conducted “The Home of the Future” study, introduced at the International Builders’ Show in Orlando, in 2006. Based on polls of architects, designers, marketers and manufacturers, it provides a detailed view of what buyers can expect to find in an “average” home and an “upscale” home in 2015.Trends in all housesAccording to the experts, the pace of change will be much faster over the next 10 years than in recent years, and buyers can expect that all homes will be significantly “greener” and more resource efficient than today. There will also be increasing emphasis on universal design/handicap access.Perhaps most surprising: The average home size has increased significantly in the past decade but is not likely to increase in the next 10 years. In fact, average home size in 2015 is likely to stay in the range of today’s 2,400 square feet, and homes are increasingly likely to be two-story rather than one-story.Like today, kitchens and bathrooms will continue to be among the most important factors affecting consumer choices and will continue to feature upgraded materials and appliances. The focus on garages will also increase, with more consumers preferring three-car garages. Moreover, the door openings on garages will be larger to accommodate larger vehicles.

Average home in 2015
2,330-square-foot, two-story home with two to three bathrooms and four bedrooms
One-story entry foyer
One-story family room (no loft or volume ceilings, etc.)
Living room will vanish or become parlor/retreat/library
Nine-foot ceilings on first floor; eight- to nine-foot ceilings on second floor
Exterior walls of vinyl or fiber cement siding or brick
Staircase located in foyer
Front porch
Patio
Fiber optic network, programmable thermostat, structured wiring system, multi-line phone system
Both shower stall and tub in master bathroom
Toilet in master bath will have separate enclosure
Upscale home in 2015
More than 4,000 square feet
Two-story home with 3 to 4 bathrooms and 4 or more bedrooms
Two-story entry foyer
One- or two-story family room
Likely to have formal living room, but living room may be replaced by parlor/retreat/library
Nine-foot ceilings on first floor; nine- to ten-foot ceilings on upper floors
Exterior of stone, brick, stucco or fiber cement siding
Stairs in the back or side of the house
Front porch, rear porch, patio and deck
Two master bedroom suites
Outdoor kitchen with grill, sinks, refrigerator, cooking island
Outdoor fireplace, pool/spa, audio/TV equipment, lighting
Programmable thermostat, structured wiring, multi-line phone system, multi-zone HVAC, remote control fireplaces, instant hot water in bathrooms/kitchens, lighting control system, monitored burglar/fire/toxic gas alarm system© 2007 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Citizens Setting up Refunds.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Feb. 15, 2007 – Citizens Property Insurance Corp. plans to send refund checks to all of its 1.3 million policyholders around April 15, one of several price reductions that customers will receive during the next several months.The state-sponsored insurer disclosed the time frame last week in papers filed with regulators but declined to say Tuesday how much the cuts would be.Previously, officials have estimated a maximum 5 percent cut. The refunds are the result of the state Legislature’s insurance reform package.Some Citizens policyholders will be eligible for additional discounts. About 20,000 customers statewide in the high-risk wind account will receive refund checks in the next two weeks, said spokesman Rocky Scott.Citizens has more than 400,000 high-risk policies, but most customers were not charged the higher premiums previously scheduled for January but subsequently canceled by state lawmakers.Those premium hikes were as high as 22 percent in South Florida. Beginning Thursday, customers getting renewal notices will see the change reflected.A small group of policyholders in Citizens personal lines account, which covers about 800,000 policyholders, also will be receiving refund checks as of March 15.Most won’t get the refund because Citizens already readjusted rates in the account to reflect the elimination of a Jan. 1 rate hike.Policyholders who are not in the high-risk pool and who are eligible for refunds will see small checks for the most part because their rates did not go up as much as Citizen’s high-risk rates.Those policies in Palm Beach County refunds could be as little as 1 percent or 2 percent of the total premium. Martin County residents will fare better, with rates going down around 14 percent.Citizens also has reiterated its plans to offer, by April 1, multi-peril coverage in its high-risk wind pool area, which is east of Interstate 95 in Palm Beach and St. Lucie counties. By issuing the less-risky fire and theft coverage, Citizens will increase its premium base while lowering its overall risk.Policyholders in those areas now have two policies, one from Citizens for wind damage and a second policy, usually from a private company, to cover other risks.Citizens’ plan to offer such coverage is subject to the approval of the governor and other top state officials.

What are the Best Real Estate Web Sites?

About 80 percent of buyers use the Internet to help find a home, according to research by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. To help get the most out of their Web search, USA Today reviewed the top 10 most popular real estate Web sites to determine which ones standout among the pack in helping buyers find information on real estate. Here’s a summary of their findings, in alphabetical order, and what they liked or disliked.
AOL Real Estate. Reviewers liked the online mortgage tools, but weren’t as enthusiastic about research information, which they said was out-of-date.
Century 21. Instant chats with real estate pros are cited as a good idea, but reviewers didn’t like how the searches only turn up Century 21 listings.
Coldwell Banker. Interactive map and price comparison information pleased reviewers, but searches limited to Coldwell Banker were a turnoff.
Homes.com. Includes some information on foreclosures and new homes as well as competing loan terms from local lenders. However, no neighborhood data available for this search.
HomeGain. Reviewers like the listings of comparable homes sold, but criticized its search process and links limited to Keller Williams.
REALTOR.com. Reviewers liked the detailed descriptions and estimated monthly payment tool, and said multiple pictures and virtual tours for some properties are a plus.
Re/Max. Reviewers compliment ease of navigation and easy to find real estate contact information, but say the interactive map of prior sales needs work.
Yahoo Real Estate. Critics weren’t too enthusiastic about its exclusive deals with Prudential Real Estate and how it offers limited new-home sales data.
Zillow. Reviewers liked the site's interactive features, including its new Make Me Move feature that lets you name the price you would move for. But its inaccuracies at times on home estimations didn't please reviewers.
ZipRealty.com. Positives include allowing people to post reviews of homes they've toured. But a negative was its bias toward E-Loan for its loan comparisons.Source: USA Today, Noelle Knox (02/08/07)

Florida's Housing Market for 4 Q 2006

ORLANDO, Fla. – Feb. 15, 2007 – Florida’s housing sector continued to mirror the national trend in fourth quarter 2006, reflecting slower sales, stabilizing median prices and higher inventory levels of homes available for sale in many markets.Statewide, sales of single-family existing homes totaled 37,177 during the three-month period, a decrease of 28 percent compared to 51,310 homes sold during the same time a year earlier, according to the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR). Traditionally, home sales often ease during the fourth quarter as a result of holidays, cooler weather and other influences.The statewide existing-home median sales price remained stable at $242,100 in the fourth quarter; a year ago, it was $245,600 for a slight 1 percent decrease. In 2001, the fourth-quarter statewide median sales price was $128,400, which reflects an increase of 88.5 percent over the five-year period. The median is a typical market price where half the homes sold for more, half for less.To gain insight into current trends in Florida’s real estate industry, the University of Florida’s Center for Real Estate Studies conducts a quarterly survey of industry executives, market research economists, real estate scholars and other experts. While acknowledging the adjusting housing market, the fourth quarterly survey results found no evidence of home prices overall dropping long-term statewide.“One important indicator of the real estate market is occupancy rates, and these appear to be stable or increasing in most markets, including apartments, office buildings, retail space, and industrial warehouse and distribution space,” said Dr. Wayne Archer, director of UF’s Bergstrom Center for Real Estate Studies. He noted that the relative health and growth of Florida’s economy provides a strong foundation for the state.“Employment is very good and the fundamentals that drive rental income and occupancy are still very strong,” he said. “In addition, interest rates have remained perhaps a little more stable than some people expected.” According to Freddie Mac, the national commitment rate for a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.25 percent in fourth quarter 2006; one year earlier, it averaged 6.22 percent.The latest industry outlook from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) calls for a steady rise in existing home sales following the fourth quarter. NAR Chief Economist David Lereah says that while “home sales may appear weak in comparison with the record surge in 2005, they will be sustained at historically high levels that are in line with long-term demand.” NAR expects 2006 to finish as the third strongest year for sales after the record years of 2005 and 2004. Looking to Florida’s existing condominium market, sales of existing condos also decreased during the quarter, with a total of 10,596 condos sold statewide compared to 15,425 in fourth quarter 2005 for a 31 percent decline, according to FAR. The statewide median sales price for condos decreased 3 percent to $205,200 for the three-month period; a year ago, it was $212,100.Among the state’s larger markets, the Miami metropolitan statistical area (MSA) reported 1,828 existing homes sold for the quarter, a decrease of 3 percent compared to the 1,878 homes sold a year earlier. The market’s existing-home median sales price decreased 1 percent to $370,400; a year earlier, it was $375,900. A total of 1,694 existing condos sold in the market over the three-month period, down 28 percent from fourth quarter 2005, while the existing-condo median price increased 1 percent to $266,500.The Punta Gorda MSA, one of the smaller markets in the state, reported that 663 homes changed hands in the fourth quarter, down 2 percent compared to 674 homes sold a year earlier. Over the same period, the market’s existing-home median home price declined 10 percent to $209,700; a year earlier, it was $233,700. A total of 118 existing condos sold in the market during the fourth quarter, down 28 percent from the previous year, while the existing-condo median price rose 20 percent to $195,000.© 2007 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS

4th Quarter Marks Bottom of Housing Cycle

Existing-home sales in most states declined from year-ago levels in the fourth quarter, marking the likely bottom for the current housing cycle, according to the latest quarterly survey by the NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®. Prices dipped slightly overall, as sellers were more willing to negotiate. “This information confirms 2006 was the year of contraction,” says NAR Chief Economist David Lereah. “Hopefully the fourth quarter was the bottom of this current business cycle.”He says home sales are leveling at historically high levels, and examination of data within the fourth quarter shows home prices began to stabilize near the end of the year. “When we get the figures for this spring, I expect to see a discernible improvement in both sales and prices,” he says.Sales Pace Slows 10 PercentTotal state existing-home sales, including single-family homes and condos, were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.24 million units in the fourth quarter, down 10.1 percent from a 6.94 million-unit level in the fourth quarter of 2005. Even with the general decline, six states showed increases in the sales pace from a year ago and one was unchanged. The biggest total sales increase was in Indiana, where existing-home sales rose 13.7 percent from the fourth quarter of 2005. In Arkansas the fourth-quarter resale pace rose 11.1 percent from a year earlier, while Texas experienced the third strongest gain, up 6.2 percent.Prices Rise in 71 Metro AreasThe national median price for existing single-family homes was $219,300 in the fourth quarter, down 2.7 percent from a year earlier when the median price was $225,300. The median is a typical market price where half of the homes sold for more and half sold for less. In 2006, the median price rose 1.4 percent to $222,000.Among the 149 metropolitan statistical areas examined for the fourth-quarter survey, 71 showed price gains from a year earlier, including 14 metros with double-digit annual increases; 73 areas had price declines and five were unchanged. The largest single-family home price gain was in the Atlantic City, N.J., area, where the median price of $339,800 was 25.9 percent higher than a year ago. Next was the Salt Lake City area, where prices rose 22.7 percent to $223,600; and The Trenton-Ewing area of New Jersey, with an 18.9 percent increase to $289,000.Most, Least Expensive MarketsThe most affordable median price for single-family homes was in Elmira, N.Y., at $78,400. Other affordable markets include the Youngstown-Warren-Boardman area of Ohio and Pennsylvania, with a fourth-quarter median price of $80,000; and Decatur, Ill., at $89,200. The most expensive was in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara area of California where the median price was $760,000. The second most expensive area was San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, at $733,400, followed by the Anaheim-Santa Ana-Irvine area (Orange Co., Calif.), at $690,700. A Look at Long-Term Price GainsNAR President Pat Vredevoogd Combs says it’s smart to examine home price trends over a five-year period for a more accurate picture of appreciation that home owners realize when they sell. “Since the typical owner stays in a home for six years, it’s more useful to look at the five-year comparison for metro area home prices — most of them are seeing strong gains,” she said. The median five-year price gain is 41.8 percent.NAR’s research shows that typical sellers experienced healthy gains on the value of their home over the last five years in almost all 131 available areas, even in areas with recent price declines.Metro areas with the largest single-family price gains over the past five years include the California areas of Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, up 155.3 percent, and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, up 142.3 percent, followed by the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Miami Beach area of Florida, up 135.4 percent. Buyers Responding to IncentivesWhile the fourth-quarter statistics provide a snapshot of the housing market a few months ago, the current market already is changing for the better, Combs says. Favorable interest rates and better pricing are fueling buyer demand. According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate on a 30-year conventional fixed-rate mortgage was 6.25 percent in the fourth quarter, down from 6.56 percent in the third quarter. The rate was 6.22 percent in the fourth quarter of 2005.“Right now, buyers are responding to seller pricing and incentives, and there’s a bit of a pent-up demand as a result of buyer hesitation during the second half of 2006,” she says. “We’re not looking for big changes, but a gradual rise in sales and home prices is projected — that will be good for the overall housing market and related industries.”Condo Prices Dip SlightlyMetro area condominium and cooperative prices — covering changes in 58 markets — show the national median existing condo price was $220,900 in the fourth quarter, down 2.1 percent from the same period in 2005. Thirty-one metros showed annual increases in the median condo price, including seven areas with double-digit gains; 27 metros had price declines.The strongest condo price gains were in the Austin-Round Rock area of Texas, where the fourth quarter price of $160,000 rose 16.5 percent from a year ago. Also, posting strong condo price gains were the Newark-Union area of New Jersey and Pennsylvania, where the median condo price of $352,600 rose 16.4 percent from the fourth quarter of 2005, and Springfield, Mass., at $160,400, an increase of 14.6 percent.Metro area median existing condo prices in the fourth quarter ranged from $102,600 in Wichita, Kan., to $580,300 in the San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont area. The second most expensive reported condo market was Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana at $402,000, followed by the San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos area of California at $358,200. Affordable condo markets include Bismarck, N.D., at $103,500, and Greensboro-High Point, N.C., at $119,100.Regional Data: West Has Biggest Sales Drop Northeast: The Northeast saw an existing-home sales pace of 1.04 million units in the fourth quarter, which was 6.6 percent below a year ago. The median Northeastern resale single-family home price was $274,600 in the fourth quarter, which is 2.5 percent below the same period in 2005. After the Atlantic City and Trenton-Ewing areas, the strongest price increase in the Northeast was in Pittsfield, Mass., with a median price of $220,600, up 4.7 percent from the fourth quarter of last year. Also, recording strong price gains was the Albany-Schenectady-Troy area of New York with a median price of $198,700, up 4.1 percent.South: Total existing-home sales in the South were at an annual rate of 2.49 million units in the fourth quarter, down 8.5 percent from the fourth quarter of 2005. After the gains in Arkansas and Texas, the next strongest increase in the South was in Kentucky, up 5.6 percent from a year ago, while Mississippi rose 2.0 percent.The median existing single-family home price in the South was $181,700 in the fourth quarter, which is 3.7 percent below a year earlier. The strongest increase in the South was in the Beaumont-Port Arthur area of Texas, where the median price of $120,000 was 15.1 percent above the fourth quarter of 2005. Next was Raleigh-Cary, N.C., at $226,300, up 14.5 percent from a year ago, followed by the Cumberland area of Maryland and West Virginia, with a 14.4 percent gain to $98,000.Midwest: In the Midwest, total existing-home sales declined 8.6 percent to a 1.43 million-unit annual level in the fourth quarter compared with a year earlier. The median existing single-family home price in the Midwest was $161,800, down 4.2 percent from the fourth quarter of 2005.The strongest metro price increase in the Midwest was in the Davenport-Moline-Rock Island area of Iowa and Illinois, where the median price of $116,400 was 6.6 percent higher than a year ago. Next was Dayton, Ohio, at $119,500, up 5.9 percent from the fourth quarter of 2005, and Rockford, Ill., at $121,500, up 5.7 percent in the last year.West: In the West, the existing-home sales pace of 1.28 million units was 17.8 percent lower than the fourth quarter of 2005. The best performance in the region was in Alaska, where existing-home sales rose 0.4 percent from a year earlier.The median existing single-family home price in the West slipped 0.4 percent to $355,100 during the fourth quarter. After Salt Lake City, the strongest increase in the West was in the Salem, Ore., area, at $223,100, up 14.9 percent from fourth quarter of 2005, followed by Farmington, N.M., at $183,000, up 14.0 percent, and Spokane, Wash., at $189,200, up 12.2 percent from a year ago.— REALTOR® Magazine Online